The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has confirmed that the official announcement for the 2026 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) will take place on October 24, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. ET. Originally slated for release on October 15, the announcement was delayed due to the ongoing government shutdown.
This delay has raised concerns among millions of Social Security recipients and veterans on VA disability who rely on the annual COLA adjustment to keep up with rising costs. With nearly 75 million Americans, including retirees, disabled individuals, and children, receiving Social Security benefits, the COLA is a key factor in determining how much money will be added to monthly checks starting in January 2026.
How is the COLA Calculated?
The COLA is calculated based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which measures the average price changes of goods and services over a three-month period. For the 2026 adjustment, the calculation will use data collected from July through September of 2025.
The formula compares the average CPI-W for the third quarter of 2025 to the same period in the previous year. If prices have increased, the COLA will reflect that increase as a percentage, helping to offset the impact of inflation on recipients’ purchasing power.
A Brief History of Recent COLA Adjustments
In recent years, COLA adjustments have varied significantly based on inflation trends. In 2023, beneficiaries received a record-breaking 8.7% COLA, the largest increase since 1981. This surge was primarily driven by higher inflation during the pandemic recovery period. The COLA for 2024, however, dropped to 3.2%, as inflation began to stabilize. For 2025, the COLA stood at 2.5%, marking a modest increase compared to the previous year.
In past years, some advocacy groups have called for the use of an alternative index, the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E), to better reflect the spending patterns of seniors, particularly their increased costs in areas like healthcare and medications. While the CPI-E could offer a more accurate picture of seniors’ financial needs, the Social Security Administration has continued to use the CPI-W for the COLA calculation.
History of COLA Rates
| Year | COLA % |
|---|---|
| 2010 | 0% |
| 2011 | 0% |
| 2012 | 3.6% |
| 2013 | 1.7% |
| 2014 | 1.5% |
| 2015 | 1.7% |
| 2016 | 0% |
| 2017 | 0.3% |
| 2018 | 2.0% |
| 2019 | 2.8% |
| 2020 | 1.6% |
| 2021 | 1.3% |
| 2022 | 5.9% |
| 2023 | 8.7% |
| 2024 | 3.2% |
| 2025 | 2.5% |
What Will the 2026 COLA Be?
Although the exact percentage won’t be known until October 24, experts are predicting a moderate increase for 2026. The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) has projected a 2.7% COLA based on early inflation trends and historical data. Should this prediction hold, the average Social Security and VA disability recipient could see a boost of more than $50 a month starting in January.
This projected increase comes as welcome news to retirees who have seen their purchasing power eroded in recent years. According to TSCL, nearly 40% of seniors rely entirely on their Social Security benefits for income, making the annual COLA announcement crucial for their financial stability.
While the 2026 COLA is still subject to the official data release later this month, its impact is expected to resonate across the nation, affecting both the financial planning of millions and the broader economy.
